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positive change always means local-currency depreciation. H.10 fixes are reference rates, not executable dealer quotes.","Monthly IMF prices are period averages with publication lag. They inform category breadth only and never enter the daily Passage or analog state.","Commodity pressure is deliberately two-sided: higher prices can consume working capital; lower prices can impair collateral and trigger margin. The score identifies an unusually large move, not its net macro effect.","The Passage is a split-sample correlation audit. A stable lead/lag association can still be driven by a third variable; 'earned' never means causal.","Analog event rates use a small, de-clustered neighbor set; the Wilson interval and unconditional base rate must travel with the point estimate.","Policy-rate differentials are not forward points, hedged carry, or cross-currency basis. Those require licensed live curves that Seiche does not have.","BIS settlement figures are an April 2025 structural survey, not today's flow. Scenario outputs are identities under editable assumptions, not measured exposures."]}}