{"ok":true,"schema":"seiche.world-markets.v1","status":"derived","selection":"forex","generated_at":"2026-10-06T05:24:46+00:00","as_of":"2026-10-02","clocks":{"snapshot_generated_at":"2026-10-06T05:24:46+00:00","evaluation_at":"2026-10-06T05:34:23+00:00","latest_domain_as_of":"2026-10-05","domains":{"money_markets":"2026-10-02","forex":"2026-10-02","capital_markets":"2026-10-05"},"excluded_from_observation_clocks":["china_macro.knowledge_time"],"boundary":"Response time never advances a source or observation as-of clock.","selected_evidence_as_of":"2026-10-02"},"context_only":true,"chart_history_included":false,"available_selectors":["summary","money_markets","forex","capital_markets","china_macro","sources","methodology","all"],"canonical_urls":{"world_markets":"https://seiche.info/markets/","money_markets":"https://seiche.info/money-markets/","forex":"https://seiche.info/markets/forex/","capital_markets":"https://seiche.info/markets/capital-markets/","china_macro":"https://seiche.info/markets/china-macro/","api":"https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/world-markets","mcp":"https://api.seiche.info/mcp","realtime_venue":"https://api.seiche.info/undertow/live/quotes.json"},"citation":{"publisher":"Seiche","title":"Seiche World Markets","canonical_url":"https://seiche.info/markets/","topic_url":"https://seiche.info/markets/forex/","api_url":"https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/world-markets","generated_at":"2026-10-06T05:24:46+00:00","evidence_as_of":"2026-10-02"},"scope":{"coverage_claim":"curated_partial_non_exhaustive","included":["money_markets","forex","capital_markets","china_macro"],"not_claimed":["every jurisdiction, currency, security, venue, or issuer","a consolidated real-time market data feed","executable prices, depth, or transaction-cost estimates","investment advice or a complete capital-markets taxonomy"]},"coverage":{"domains":[{"id":"money_markets","status":"observed","as_of":"2026-10-02","reading":"At least one current money-market channel is unusually stretched versus its own recent history, but this is context rather than evidence of system-wide stress.","coverage":{"coverage_pct":88.0}},{"id":"forex","status":"derived","as_of":"2026-10-02","reading":"Upstream pressure is running ahead of cash markets by 19 points. Watch 3m financial CP − Treasury for confirmation rather than treating the cross-market move as funding stress already.","coverage":{"currency_leaders":22,"harbors":5,"basins":6}},{"id":"capital_markets","status":"derived","as_of":"2026-10-05","reading":"plumbing leads price","coverage":{"positioning_blocks":3,"primary_market_blocks":3}}],"available_domains":3,"declared_domains":3,"status_counts":{"observed":1,"derived":2,"structural":1,"restricted":1,"unavailable":0},"boundaries":[{"status":"restricted","category":"history_and_non_allowlisted_fields","included":false,"reason":"The projection is a data-minimized whitelist and excludes chart/history arrays. This boundary is not a per-record licensing determination."},{"status":"structural","category":"official_source_registry","included":true,"reason":"Catalog inclusion identifies an official reference and does not assert use in this snapshot; inspect used_in_snapshot and projection_paths."}]},"status_definitions":{"observed":"A source-reported value retained with its own as-of clock; it may be stale at evaluation time.","derived":"A bounded Seiche transformation, comparison, percentile, proxy, or association; not a raw observation.","structural":"Method, source, market architecture, or routing metadata; not a current market print.","restricted":"Evidence intentionally omitted because redistribution or raw-history rights do not permit this surface.","unavailable":"No eligible completed evidence is present; absence is not interpreted as calm or zero."},"disclaimer":"Research context, not investment advice.","forex":{"status":"derived","as_of":"2026-10-02","headline":{"regime":"TRANSMISSION BUILDING","verdict":"Upstream pressure is running ahead of cash markets by 19 points. Watch 3m financial CP − Treasury for confirmation rather than treating the cross-market move as funding stress already.","upstream_pressure":70.3,"fx_pressure":84.1,"materials_pressure":53.6,"funding_priced":51.7,"transmission_gap":18.6,"coverage_pct":100.0,"context_only":true,"source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred","eia_open_data"]},"breadth":{"broad":{"index":121.385,"change_20d_pct":2.76,"pressure_percentile":99.1,"asof":"2026-10-02"},"advanced":{"change_20d_pct":3.01,"pressure_percentile":99.1,"asof":"2026-10-02"},"emerging":{"change_20d_pct":2.52,"pressure_percentile":96.6,"asof":"2026-10-02"},"median_pair_depreciation_percentile":91.8,"median_pair_volatility_percentile":15.1,"source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"currencies":[{"key":"MXN","label":"Mexican peso","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":18.192,"unit":"MXN per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXMXUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":2.82,"change_20d_pct":7.26,"change_60d_pct":3.75,"realized_vol_20d_pct":10.32,"depreciation_percentile":97.0,"volatility_percentile":55.4,"pressure":80.4,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"INR","label":"Indian rupee","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":96.31,"unit":"INR per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXINUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.52,"change_20d_pct":1.93,"change_60d_pct":0.96,"realized_vol_20d_pct":3.22,"depreciation_percentile":92.4,"volatility_percentile":47.9,"pressure":74.6,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":187.0,"policy_asof":"2026-07-01","policy_rate_label":"call money","policy_rate_cadence":"monthly ~2mo lag","status":"derived"}},{"key":"ZAR","label":"South African rand","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":16.6685,"unit":"ZAR per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXSFUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":2.25,"change_20d_pct":4.18,"change_60d_pct":2.16,"realized_vol_20d_pct":9.34,"depreciation_percentile":95.7,"volatility_percentile":29.4,"pressure":69.2,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"EUR","label":"Euro","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":0.88818,"unit":"EUR per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXUSEU","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":1.25,"change_20d_pct":3.23,"change_60d_pct":1.6,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.49,"depreciation_percentile":98.5,"volatility_percentile":24.1,"pressure":68.7,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":-144.0,"policy_asof":"2026-10-02","policy_rate_label":"€STR","policy_rate_cadence":"daily","status":"derived"}},{"key":"DKK","label":"Danish krone","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":6.6574,"unit":"DKK per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXDNUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":1.52,"change_20d_pct":3.53,"change_60d_pct":1.89,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.27,"depreciation_percentile":99.5,"volatility_percentile":19.8,"pressure":67.6,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"LKR","label":"Sri Lankan rupee","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":330.55,"unit":"LKR per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXSLUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.16,"change_20d_pct":0.72,"change_60d_pct":-1.35,"realized_vol_20d_pct":3.08,"depreciation_percentile":71.6,"volatility_percentile":58.0,"pressure":66.2,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"CAD","label":"Canadian dollar","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":1.4253,"unit":"CAD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXCAUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.8,"change_20d_pct":3.42,"change_60d_pct":0.64,"realized_vol_20d_pct":2.95,"depreciation_percentile":99.9,"volatility_percentile":2.4,"pressure":60.9,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"AUD","label":"Australian dollar","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":1.43823,"unit":"AUD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXUSAL","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":1.15,"change_20d_pct":3.54,"change_60d_pct":-0.13,"realized_vol_20d_pct":5.69,"depreciation_percentile":95.0,"volatility_percentile":7.3,"pressure":60.0,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"SEK","label":"Swedish krona","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":10.0688,"unit":"SEK per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXSDUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":1.66,"change_20d_pct":5.42,"change_60d_pct":4.32,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.54,"depreciation_percentile":99.4,"volatility_percentile":0.3,"pressure":59.8,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"GBP","label":"Sterling","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":0.75563,"unit":"GBP per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXUSUK","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.12,"change_20d_pct":2.28,"change_60d_pct":1.32,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.72,"depreciation_percentile":91.2,"volatility_percentile":12.1,"pressure":59.6,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":-14.7,"policy_asof":"2026-10-01","policy_rate_label":"SONIA","policy_rate_cadence":"daily","status":"derived"}},{"key":"BRL","label":"Brazilian real","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":5.2222,"unit":"BRL per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXBZUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.58,"change_20d_pct":2.27,"change_60d_pct":1.99,"realized_vol_20d_pct":8.79,"depreciation_percentile":79.0,"volatility_percentile":29.2,"pressure":59.1,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"NZD","label":"New Zealand dollar","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":1.7819,"unit":"NZD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXUSNZ","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.98,"change_20d_pct":4.86,"change_60d_pct":2.66,"realized_vol_20d_pct":5.18,"depreciation_percentile":98.1,"volatility_percentile":0.7,"pressure":59.1,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"TWD","label":"New Taiwan dollar","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":32.01,"unit":"TWD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXTAUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.6,"change_20d_pct":0.72,"change_60d_pct":-0.47,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.25,"depreciation_percentile":64.0,"volatility_percentile":50.3,"pressure":58.5,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"NOK","label":"Norwegian krone","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":9.6386,"unit":"NOK per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXNOUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":1.49,"change_20d_pct":3.66,"change_60d_pct":-0.74,"realized_vol_20d_pct":5.56,"depreciation_percentile":95.0,"volatility_percentile":0.9,"pressure":57.4,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"CHF","label":"Swiss franc","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":0.8293,"unit":"CHF per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXSZUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.13,"change_20d_pct":2.73,"change_60d_pct":2.85,"realized_vol_20d_pct":4.5,"depreciation_percentile":92.5,"volatility_percentile":2.3,"pressure":56.4,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"JPY","label":"Japanese yen","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":157.81,"unit":"JPY per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXJPUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.4,"change_20d_pct":1.56,"change_60d_pct":-2.76,"realized_vol_20d_pct":7.84,"depreciation_percentile":70.6,"volatility_percentile":34.1,"pressure":56.0,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":-265.3,"policy_asof":"2026-10-01","policy_rate_label":"TONA","policy_rate_cadence":"daily","status":"derived"}},{"key":"MYR","label":"Malaysian ringgit","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":4.081,"unit":"MYR per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXMAUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.25,"change_20d_pct":1.0,"change_60d_pct":0.14,"realized_vol_20d_pct":3.21,"depreciation_percentile":80.9,"volatility_percentile":17.4,"pressure":55.5,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"THB","label":"Thai baht","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":33.58,"unit":"THB per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXTHUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.57,"change_20d_pct":2.04,"change_60d_pct":0.63,"realized_vol_20d_pct":5.02,"depreciation_percentile":85.5,"volatility_percentile":7.6,"pressure":54.4,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"KRW","label":"Korean won","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":1345.75,"unit":"KRW per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXKOUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":-0.79,"change_20d_pct":-0.82,"change_60d_pct":-10.8,"realized_vol_20d_pct":11.2,"depreciation_percentile":31.2,"volatility_percentile":81.5,"pressure":51.3,"direction":"stronger vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":-82.1,"policy_asof":"2026-08-01","policy_rate_label":"o/n call","policy_rate_cadence":"monthly ~2mo lag","status":"derived"}},{"key":"SGD","label":"Singapore dollar","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":1.2787,"unit":"SGD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXSIUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.13,"change_20d_pct":0.96,"change_60d_pct":-1.01,"realized_vol_20d_pct":2.56,"depreciation_percentile":81.4,"volatility_percentile":1.3,"pressure":49.4,"direction":"weaker vs USD","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"HKD","label":"Hong Kong dollar","bucket":"AFE","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":7.847,"unit":"HKD per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXHKUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":0.04,"change_20d_pct":0.09,"change_60d_pct":0.13,"realized_vol_20d_pct":0.2,"depreciation_percentile":71.6,"volatility_percentile":5.4,"pressure":45.1,"direction":"flat","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}},{"key":"CNY","label":"Chinese yuan","bucket":"EM","status":"derived","spot":{"status":"observed","value":6.7038,"unit":"CNY per USD","as_of":"2026-10-02","source_id":"DEXCHUS","source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h10","fred"]},"analytics":{"change_5d_pct":-0.11,"change_20d_pct":-0.21,"change_60d_pct":-1.3,"realized_vol_20d_pct":1.1,"depreciation_percentile":51.0,"volatility_percentile":12.9,"pressure":35.8,"direction":"flat","policy_diff_vs_effr_bp":null,"policy_asof":null,"policy_rate_label":null,"policy_rate_cadence":null,"status":"derived"}}],"passage":{"earned":0,"tentative":1,"not_earned":5,"doctrine":"target and lag are selected on the first 60% of each aligned history; earned requires the same sign and |r| ≥ 0.10 in the untouched final 40%. Correlation is not causation.","status":"derived","edges":[{"source":"EM dollar","target":"Nonfinancial CP−bill","lag_bd":0,"status":"tentative","corr_discovery":0.29,"corr_holdout":0.052,"evidence_status":"derived"},{"source":"WTI","target":"Nonfinancial CP−bill","lag_bd":0,"status":"not_earned","corr_discovery":-0.366,"corr_holdout":0.206,"evidence_status":"derived"},{"source":"JPY","target":"Financial CP−bill","lag_bd":10,"status":"not_earned","corr_discovery":-0.227,"corr_holdout":0.084,"evidence_status":"derived"},{"source":"Natural gas","target":"Financial CP−bill","lag_bd":0,"status":"not_earned","corr_discovery":0.022,"corr_holdout":-0.07,"evidence_status":"derived"},{"source":"Broad USD","target":"Nonfinancial CP−bill","lag_bd":0,"status":"not_earned","corr_discovery":0.263,"corr_holdout":0.034,"evidence_status":"derived"},{"source":"EM FX breadth","target":"Nonfinancial CP−bill","lag_bd":0,"status":"not_earned","corr_discovery":0.239,"corr_holdout":-0.011,"evidence_status":"derived"}]},"harbors":[{"harbor":"EURO AREA","regime":"TIGHTENING","stress":66.3,"stress_coverage":1.0,"rate":{"label":"€STR","last_pct":2.44,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_6m_bp":50.9,"chg_1y_bp":51.7},"fx":{"label":"EUR per USD","last":0.8882,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_60d_pct":2.22,"vol10_ann_pct":5.83},"status":"derived"},{"harbor":"JAPAN","regime":"TIGHTENING","stress":62.2,"stress_coverage":1.0,"rate":{"label":"TONA (BOJ)","last_pct":1.227,"asof":"2026-10-01","chg_6m_bp":49.9,"chg_1y_bp":75.0},"fx":{"label":"JPY per USD","last":157.81,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_60d_pct":0.54,"vol10_ann_pct":7.12},"status":"derived"},{"harbor":"INDIA","regime":"HOLDING","stress":59.7,"stress_coverage":1.0,"rate":{"label":"call money (OECD MEI)","last_pct":5.5,"asof":"2026-07-01","chg_6m_bp":0.0,"chg_1y_bp":-25.0},"fx":{"label":"INR per USD","last":96.31,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_60d_pct":1.02,"vol10_ann_pct":3.57},"status":"derived"},{"harbor":"KOREA","regime":"TIGHTENING","stress":57.5,"stress_coverage":1.0,"rate":{"label":"o/n call (OECD MEI)","last_pct":2.809,"asof":"2026-08-01","chg_6m_bp":27.8,"chg_1y_bp":30.3},"fx":{"label":"KRW per USD","last":1345.75,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_60d_pct":-5.92,"vol10_ann_pct":11.94},"status":"derived"},{"harbor":"CHINA","regime":null,"stress":22.0,"stress_coverage":0.75,"rate":{},"fx":{"label":"CNY per USD","last":6.7038,"asof":"2026-10-02","chg_60d_pct":-0.78,"vol10_ann_pct":1.18},"status":"derived"}],"basins":[{"basin":"US","anchor":"SOFR − IORB","value_bp":-2.0,"z":-0.44,"asof":"2026-10-02","status":"derived"},{"basin":"EURO AREA","anchor":"€STR − DFR","value_bp":-6.0,"z":2.1,"asof":"2026-10-02","status":"derived"},{"basin":"UK","anchor":"SONIA level (no keyless daily policy anchor)","value_bp":373.3,"z":0.07,"asof":"2026-10-01","status":"derived"},{"basin":"JAPAN","anchor":"TONA level (BOJ daily; no keyless daily policy anchor)","value_bp":122.7,"z":-0.07,"asof":"2026-10-01","status":"derived"},{"basin":"INDIA","anchor":"INR/USD (FX channel only — rates feed pending)","value_bp":96.31,"z":1.28,"vol_z":-0.62,"asof":"2026-10-02","status":"derived"},{"basin":"CRYPTO (offshore $)","anchor":"USDT peg deviation","value_bp":-2.3,"z":-0.77,"asof":"2026-10-06","status":"derived"}],"network":{"status":"derived","asof":"2026-10-01","total_connectedness":20.8,"source":"EUR·fx","sink":"KRW·fx","verdict":"system connectedness 21/100; EUR·fx is the net stress SOURCE this window (net +10)","directional":[{"node":"EUR·fx","to":51.2,"from":40.9,"net":10.3,"role":"transmitter","status":"derived"},{"node":"EUR·rate","to":5.2,"from":2.5,"net":2.8,"role":"transmitter","status":"derived"},{"node":"CNY·fx","to":35.3,"from":34.0,"net":1.3,"role":"transmitter","status":"derived"},{"node":"JP·rate","to":2.0,"from":2.3,"net":-0.3,"role":"receiver","status":"derived"},{"node":"JPY·fx","to":29.3,"from":31.1,"net":-1.8,"role":"receiver","status":"derived"},{"node":"INR·fx","to":15.9,"from":18.8,"net":-2.9,"role":"receiver","status":"derived"},{"node":"US·rate","to":1.3,"from":5.6,"net":-4.3,"role":"receiver","status":"derived"},{"node":"KRW·fx","to":26.1,"from":31.1,"net":-5.0,"role":"receiver","status":"derived"}]},"dollar_system":{"swap_lines":{"outstanding_usd_m":207.0,"change_13w_usd_m":-43.0,"asof":"2026-09-30"},"foreign_official_rrp":{"outstanding_usd_b":350.34,"change_13w_usd_b":12.91,"asof":"2026-09-30"},"fima_repo":{"outstanding_usd_m":0.0,"asof":"2026-09-30"},"offshore_dollar_credit":{"outstanding_usd_t":14.75,"asof":"2026-03-31","cadence":"quarterly, published with a long native lag"},"source_registry_ids":["federal_reserve_h41","fred","bis_stats_api_v2"]},"settlement_structure":{"survey_asof":"2025-04"},"coverage_matrix":[{"aspect":"spot direction","status":"covered","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"realized volatility","status":"covered","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"policy carry","status":"partial","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"working capital","status":"scenario","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"margin + collateral","status":"scenario","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"official backstops","status":"covered","evidence_status":"structural"},{"aspect":"cross-currency basis / forwards","status":"out_of_scope","evidence_status":"unavailable"},{"aspect":"precious-metal spot","status":"out_of_scope","evidence_status":"unavailable"}],"caveats":["The Estuary gap is a transparent context score, not a probability, forecast, trade signal, or Seiche composite input.","H.10 pairs are normalized to local currency per USD; positive change always means local-currency depreciation. H.10 fixes are reference rates, not executable dealer quotes.","Monthly IMF prices are period averages with publication lag. They inform category breadth only and never enter the daily Passage or analog state.","Commodity pressure is deliberately two-sided: higher prices can consume working capital; lower prices can impair collateral and trigger margin. The score identifies an unusually large move, not its net macro effect.","The Passage is a split-sample correlation audit. A stable lead/lag association can still be driven by a third variable; 'earned' never means causal.","Analog event rates use a small, de-clustered neighbor set; the Wilson interval and unconditional base rate must travel with the point estimate.","Policy-rate differentials are not forward points, hedged carry, or cross-currency basis. Those require licensed live curves that Seiche does not have.","BIS settlement figures are an April 2025 structural survey, not today's flow. Scenario outputs are identities under editable assumptions, not measured exposures."]}}