{"schema":"seiche.gauge.v1","generated_at":"2026-08-13T23:19:50+00:00","index":44.5,"regime":"EROSION","coverage_pct":100.0,"tell":40.5,"p_event_5bd":0.063,"p_event_5bd_dispersion":0.023,"p_event_5bd_members":{"rule":0.082,"ml":0.038,"tide":0.077,"swell":0.037,"bathy":0.036,"tell":0.071,"navigator":0.08,"modelcourt":0.095},"next_turn":{"date":"2026-08-31","mode":"month_end","forecast_bp":2.2,"forecast_model_bp":9.6,"forecast_naive_bp":2.2,"published":"naive","band_bp":[-1.8,6.8],"severity":1,"severity_scale":"1 calm .. 5 extreme (cutoffs [3.0, 6.0, 12.0, 20.0] bp)"},"crunch_windows":[{"date":"2026-08-20","forecast_reserves_b":2995.1,"worst_case_b":2928.6,"settlement_b":266.0,"reason":"$266B auction settlement while reserves sit below the estimated kink"},{"date":"2026-08-31","forecast_reserves_b":3008.3,"worst_case_b":2899.4,"settlement_b":24.0,"reason":"calendar pressure date while reserves sit below the estimated kink"},{"date":"2026-09-15","forecast_reserves_b":3040.9,"worst_case_b":2882.2,"settlement_b":null,"reason":"calendar pressure date while reserves sit below the estimated kink"}],"faults":0,"notes":"point-in-time as-published; PROOF scoreboard at /api/public; not investment advice"}